* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL012006 06/16/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 53 48 42 36 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 53 43 40 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 54 50 42 38 29 24 22 22 23 25 28 DIS V (KT) G07R 51 40 37 33 33 24 24 27 30 26 22 23 0 SHEAR (KT) 52 55 57 59 55 50 29 21 12 13 19 22 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 2 4 2 1 -1 1 -1 8 0 0 1 N/A SHEAR DIR 35 38 40 48 63 75 90 66 50 90 90 97 N/A SST (C) 11.3 9.3 7.8 6.3 10.2 9.1 11.2 11.0 9.8 9.4 9.5 10.4 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 68 69 71 72 72 67 65 63 61 61 65 N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 68 67 68 70 71 71 65 63 61 59 60 63 N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -53.7 -53.5 -52.8 -52.2 -51.5 -49.7 -47.6 -45.2 -46.0 -45.0 -43.9 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 0 0 0 0 N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 53 48 41 41 45 48 44 49 56 56 48 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 41 34 31 25 20 14 15 13 16 15 11 8 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 128 113 96 69 72 99 89 145 148 138 198 200 N/A 200 MB DIV 54 45 35 24 30 25 34 6 -4 9 8 -1 N/A LAND (KM) 73 125 0 157 571 1344 1041 983 1084 1165 1180 1016 N/A LAT (DEG N) 44.6 46.2 47.5 49.7 52.0 54.8 57.0 58.6 60.6 61.1 60.8 59.9 N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.7 58.2 55.3 51.3 46.6 35.5 25.6 23.5 24.1 25.3 25.7 23.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 24 24 29 36 37 37 16 11 7 3 5 12 N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 49/ 24 CX,CY: 18/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -14. -19. -24. -27. -29. -31. -32. -31. -30. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 1. -2. -4. -3. -3. -3. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -11. -12. -13. -15. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 6. 5. 0. -7. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -25. -29. -33. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -6. -10. -17. -18. -20. -19. -21. -24. -26. -27. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -2. -7. -13. -19. -32. -42. -54. -64. -75. -88.-103.-116.