* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * ALBERTO AL012006 06/16/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 55 52 47 40 34 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 55 52 41 38 32 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 55 53 43 42 37 28 22 20 21 23 25 27 30 V (KT) G08R 51 40 37 33 30 22 23 18 20 20 18 16 18 SHEAR (KT) 56 57 58 62 58 47 28 21 18 19 16 16 16 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 7 8 4 2 0 1 0 0 0 4 2 0 SHEAR DIR 34 41 40 50 64 77 87 82 52 20 23 37 36 SST (C) 11.2 9.2 7.9 6.6 10.4 9.3 11.7 12.1 12.2 11.2 8.4 N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 70 69 70 71 73 71 69 70 67 67 67 N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 69 68 69 70 71 70 67 67 64 64 66 N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.8 -53.7 -53.2 -52.6 -51.7 -50.8 -50.2 -51.3 -49.5 -46.0 -44.5 -43.5 -41.5 TH_E DEV (C) 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 1 1 0 0 0 0 700-500 MB RH 60 54 48 41 41 42 46 57 61 61 58 62 66 GFS VTEX (KT) 41 34 30 24 19 15 15 15 14 11 7 9 12 850 MB ENV VOR 119 92 65 51 63 84 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 51 38 22 15 26 23 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 72 139 -56 254 693 1473 936 383 261 259 531 965 1171 LAT (DEG N) 44.7 46.4 48.0 50.3 52.6 55.5 56.6 55.8 57.1 59.6 63.1 66.6 68.4 LONG(DEG W) 60.6 57.7 54.6 50.2 45.1 33.5 24.0 15.0 10.3 9.0 7.7 11.7 13.1 STM SPEED (KT) 26 26 32 38 39 33 22 22 13 15 21 14 8 HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 49/ 24 CX,CY: 18/ 16 T-12 MAX WIND: 50 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -10. -13. -19. -23. -26. -28. -29. -30. -29. -28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 3. 3. 1. -3. -5. -5. -4. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -2. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -14. -16. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 3. -4. -11. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -11. -16. -20. -24. -29. -33. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -1. -3. -7. -10. -17. -18. -19. -20. -23. -27. -25. -23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -8. -9. -12. -13. -14. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -15. -21. -34. -45. -55. -65. -75. -90.-102.-114.