* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL912006 06/23/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 32 36 44 53 61 69 73 76 80 83 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 32 36 44 53 61 69 73 52 36 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 30 35 43 52 60 45 DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 22 21 20 23 20 18 19 21 20 22 22 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 14 9 2 11 11 7 9 5 7 19 N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -6 -8 -6 -2 -6 0 -3 2 -1 -2 5 N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 65 104 151 104 80 163 107 164 108 55 42 N/A N/A SST (C) 27.0 27.2 27.4 27.8 28.2 28.4 28.3 27.6 27.9 24.5 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 123 125 127 132 138 140 138 130 135 103 N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 107 108 109 114 119 120 118 112 117 91 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -55.2 -55.2 -55.6 -55.6 -55.4 -55.7 -55.4 -55.5 -55.2 -55.9 -55.3 N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 13 12 14 13 15 12 14 N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 52 48 48 47 47 45 47 51 54 53 59 N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 11 12 11 11 11 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 8 22 43 56 48 24 43 35 70 50 92 N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 8 -3 14 20 8 14 15 26 42 37 62 N/A N/A LAND (KM) 604 524 465 418 364 232 148 73 114 79 -72 N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.0 26.9 26.6 26.3 26.6 27.0 27.7 29.3 31.9 34.2 N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 74.0 74.7 75.3 75.8 76.5 77.7 78.6 79.6 79.7 80.0 79.5 N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 5 6 6 5 5 7 9 14 12 N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 0 CX,CY: 0/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 652 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 4. 9. 15. 20. 24. 25. 27. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 7. 10. 11. 11. 12. 12. 11. 11. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 12. 16. 24. 33. 41. 49. 53. 56. 60. 63.