* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL912006 06/25/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 26 31 36 45 55 65 74 82 87 91 95 V (KT) LAND 20 23 23 24 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 24 25 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 17 16 16 16 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 2 1 6 7 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -3 -2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 183 218 279 310 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.8 21.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 135 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 119 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.8 -55.0 -55.2 -55.1 -55.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 12 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 51 55 56 57 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 7 8 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 47 26 40 71 88 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 33 22 24 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 126 9 -89 -59 -40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.5 28.3 27.8 28.2 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.2 80.5 81.3 81.8 82.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 10 6 7 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 0 0 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):303/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 512 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -1. -1. 1. 4. 10. 14. 18. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 17. 18. 19. 19. 19. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 6. 11. 16. 25. 35. 45. 54. 62. 67. 71. 75.