* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL922006 06/25/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 28 32 36 39 43 45 44 44 43 44 43 42 V (KT) LAND 25 28 32 36 39 43 45 44 44 43 44 43 42 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 25 18 19 15 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 19 28 32 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -6 -6 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 156 164 168 172 171 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.4 24.3 24.3 24.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 99 100 100 99 98 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 85 86 87 85 84 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.7 -55.3 -55.6 -56.0 -56.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 49 53 51 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 7 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -17 -9 -14 -19 -25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 -7 -16 -14 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1460 1445 1437 1391 1354 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 33.6 33.7 33.6 33.6 33.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.7 52.6 53.7 55.1 55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 8 10 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 630 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -1. 2. 6. 9. 10. 11. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 7. 9. 10. 8. 1. -4. -8. -10. -12. -15. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 14. 17. 19. 20. 21. 22. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 11. 14. 18. 20. 19. 19. 18. 19. 18. 17.