* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL912006 06/25/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 23 27 30 34 42 51 57 62 68 72 76 80 V (KT) LAND 20 23 27 25 26 34 43 32 29 29 29 29 29 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 22 24 28 32 28 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 15 16 17 16 16 26 30 28 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 4 1 5 9 6 4 11 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -4 -4 -2 -1 -1 0 4 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 353 264 241 294 315 356 21 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 27.9 27.6 21.4 6.7 9.5 27.2 14.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 134 130 82 58 60 127 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 115 111 74 58 58 111 67 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.9 -55.1 -55.3 -55.3 -55.2 -55.8 -55.2 -55.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 12 11 13 14 12 15 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 52 55 56 54 55 59 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 12 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 44 28 37 65 73 58 51 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -2 40 37 39 49 50 32 41 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 115 49 1 -39 -29 41 38 -200 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.6 27.8 28.0 28.2 28.2 29.8 32.3 36.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.1 79.8 80.5 81.0 80.8 80.7 80.1 78.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 6 2 2 11 15 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 0 0 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):303/ 6 CX,CY: -4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 536 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -2. -3. -3. 0. 5. 9. 12. 14. 15. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 14. 13. 12. 13. 12. 12. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 9. 11. 12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 3. 7. 10. 14. 22. 31. 37. 42. 48. 52. 56. 60.