* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL932006 06/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 47 57 65 72 78 84 88 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 39 47 57 65 72 78 84 88 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 22 23 25 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 25 20 20 18 17 19 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 8 5 8 11 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 5 6 6 8 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 19 333 325 292 298 270 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.2 28.2 28.1 28.2 28.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 140 140 138 139 145 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 147 145 142 139 140 150 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.3 -54.5 -54.1 -54.1 -54.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 65 64 65 67 71 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 7 5 6 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 16 13 15 29 32 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 31 80 77 90 88 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 545 432 416 442 451 393 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.0 8.7 9.0 9.6 9.8 10.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 49.7 51.2 52.2 53.2 54.1 56.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 12 11 10 10 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):317/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 550 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -0. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 7. 7. 7. 7. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 19. 27. 37. 45. 52. 58. 64. 68.