* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL932006 06/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 52 63 72 80 86 91 96 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 41 52 63 72 80 86 91 96 V (KT) LGE mod 20 21 21 23 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 26 18 18 21 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 8 5 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 3 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 296 304 335 281 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.2 28.2 28.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 138 141 141 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 142 147 149 148 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.0 -54.4 -54.5 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 11 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 69 66 67 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 4 5 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 18 20 28 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 75 86 62 83 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 633 521 456 406 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 8.7 8.5 8.8 9.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 48.0 49.3 50.8 52.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 14 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):317/ 15 CX,CY: -9/ 11 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 522 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -1. 1. 5. 13. 21. 27. 33. 37. 40. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 11. 13. 14. 15. 16. 16. 17. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -4. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 21. 32. 43. 52. 60. 66. 71. 76.