* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL912006 06/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 33 36 40 44 48 52 55 58 59 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 33 36 40 44 48 52 55 58 59 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 22 23 23 27 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 11 16 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -4 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 30 22 17 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.3 26.4 24.4 15.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 118 119 102 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 106 104 90 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.5 -54.7 -55.0 -55.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 11 10 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 8 9 10 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 53 27 12 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 24 36 46 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 67 81 86 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 29.4 30.8 31.9 33.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 80.3 80.6 79.8 79.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 13 13 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 12/ 10 CX,CY: 2/ 10 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -2. -2. -1. 1. 5. 9. 12. 13. 14. 16. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 10. 9. 9. 8. 8. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -6. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 8. 11. 15. 19. 23. 27. 30. 33. 34. 36.