* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP992006 07/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 28 32 45 58 67 75 83 88 84 75 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 28 32 45 58 67 75 83 88 84 75 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 21 21 22 23 25 27 30 32 32 31 V (KT) G03R 21 20 20 22 25 29 30 39 43 52 58 50 44 SHEAR (KT) 18 16 14 14 13 7 6 11 12 7 12 12 10 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 -3 -5 0 1 0 -1 -7 -7 -2 1 -1 0 SHEAR DIR 150 165 144 142 152 166 154 184 213 218 246 237 238 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.4 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 27.8 26.1 24.6 POT. INT. (KT) 145 144 143 149 156 148 151 151 153 154 144 127 111 200 MB T (C) -52.3 -53.0 -53.4 -53.1 -52.5 -53.2 -51.9 -52.6 -51.6 -51.8 -50.4 -51.3 -51.1 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 10 9 7 5 700-500 MB RH 79 79 77 73 76 80 79 79 79 76 75 75 71 GFS VTEX (KT) 3 3 4 5 6 12 16 19 24 30 33 33 30 850 MB ENV VOR -35 -27 -11 -7 -2 15 33 43 56 62 77 67 76 200 MB DIV 58 86 76 91 134 105 108 63 96 59 91 -1 57 LAND (KM) 954 988 970 998 1002 1101 1051 1104 1144 1116 1197 1313 1501 LAT (DEG N) 9.5 9.3 9.3 9.2 9.9 10.7 11.6 12.0 12.9 14.2 15.5 16.5 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 104.7 105.0 104.6 105.0 106.9 110.0 110.6 111.9 113.3 115.3 118.3 121.3 124.6 STM SPEED (KT) 4 1 0 12 25 3 7 7 10 14 15 16 17 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 612 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 7. 15. 23. 30. 36. 40. 42. 42. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 5. 5. 5. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -7. -9. -10. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -12. -12. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 4. 11. 18. 24. 30. 38. 44. 41. 34. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 4. 4. 4. 3. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 13. 25. 38. 47. 55. 63. 68. 64. 55.