* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP982006 07/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 28 29 31 34 37 38 39 41 39 35 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 28 29 31 34 37 38 39 41 39 35 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 24 23 21 20 19 19 19 19 18 18 V (KT) G04R 26 22 20 19 21 23 23 27 30 34 34 40 37 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 12 14 13 8 8 12 15 14 19 19 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 2 1 -1 0 0 -5 -3 -1 -3 -2 1 16 SHEAR DIR 254 243 233 233 239 237 228 233 233 241 245 231 247 SST (C) 28.4 28.3 28.1 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.1 27.9 27.1 POT. INT. (KT) 148 148 145 142 140 140 144 139 142 143 142 141 136 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -52.1 -52.4 -51.9 -52.4 -51.7 -52.0 -51.0 -51.7 -50.9 TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 74 73 73 73 74 73 72 68 71 72 70 72 76 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 7 8 9 10 10 12 15 17 20 21 21 20 850 MB ENV VOR 32 17 16 30 45 55 69 49 87 147 154 158 107 200 MB DIV 72 95 87 75 77 70 64 73 59 87 96 82 69 LAND (KM) 1543 1628 1718 1760 1751 1742 1825 2047 2007 1944 2028 2002 1808 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.4 11.3 11.4 11.6 11.8 11.6 10.5 10.8 11.6 11.8 12.5 14.3 LONG(DEG W) 118.6 119.5 120.7 121.4 121.5 121.6 122.6 124.5 124.3 124.4 125.8 126.2 125.5 STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 9 4 2 2 13 1 4 6 3 6 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):311/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 14. 20. 25. 29. 32. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -14. -18. -21. -24. -25. -26. -27. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -12. -13. -13. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 13. 17. 20. 18. 16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 3. 4. 6. 9. 12. 13. 14. 16. 14. 10.