* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP982006 07/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 31 34 33 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 27 27 27 28 28 29 31 34 33 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 16 16 16 16 17 V (KT) G05R 20 20 22 19 21 21 22 24 23 24 26 28 29 SHEAR (KT) 21 21 17 19 22 15 9 10 9 10 11 11 14 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 -2 0 -2 -5 -2 -6 -8 -6 -3 SHEAR DIR 255 258 255 250 251 259 238 228 232 238 259 243 252 SST (C) 28.3 28.2 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 28.0 27.9 27.9 28.0 27.8 27.5 POT. INT. (KT) 147 147 144 141 139 140 139 141 141 143 145 141 137 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.9 -52.6 -52.9 -52.3 -52.9 -52.4 -52.6 -52.0 -52.3 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 8 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 70 71 72 68 70 70 72 69 67 69 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 7 8 8 9 9 9 11 12 13 15 16 17 850 MB ENV VOR 25 20 18 19 15 8 21 39 42 41 47 47 65 200 MB DIV 57 80 69 79 81 79 57 77 78 56 20 9 30 LAND (KM) 1557 1661 1728 1765 1748 1719 1719 1710 1762 1881 2025 2207 2260 LAT (DEG N) 11.9 11.4 11.6 11.7 11.9 11.9 11.9 12.1 12.3 12.1 12.3 12.1 12.5 LONG(DEG W) 119.1 120.0 121.2 121.8 121.8 121.4 121.4 121.5 122.6 124.1 126.3 128.4 129.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 9 3 1 2 1 2 5 10 11 7 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):311/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 611 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 3. 8. 13. 19. 24. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -11. -15. -19. -22. -24. -26. -27. -27. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -9. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 6. 9. 8.