* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN EP982006 07/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 27 26 26 25 23 21 19 19 20 22 V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 27 26 26 25 23 21 19 19 20 22 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 26 19 22 19 17 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 19 20 19 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -7 -8 -8 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 282 280 274 268 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 27.9 27.9 27.9 27.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 145 142 141 141 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.1 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 8 8 8 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 66 64 64 64 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 8 7 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 7 13 16 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 54 55 34 33 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1633 1724 1770 1802 1826 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 12.5 12.3 12.0 12.0 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 120.9 122.0 122.3 122.8 123.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 7 4 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):311/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 710 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 8. 13. 19. 25. 28. 31. 34. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 3. 4. 6. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -5. -8. -12. -15. -18. -20. -21. -22. -22. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 0. -2. -4. -6. -6. -5. -3.