* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BUD EP032006 07/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 69 61 54 39 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 76 69 61 54 39 27 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 76 69 63 57 48 40 34 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 24 24 22 21 21 20 22 19 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 10 10 15 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -2 1 4 2 4 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 32 10 21 48 47 47 58 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.4 24.0 23.9 23.7 23.1 22.5 23.0 23.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 108 104 103 101 95 89 94 103 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.7 -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 71 67 64 56 50 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 14 13 12 11 10 9 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 60 60 46 52 55 26 16 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 66 48 34 25 25 -2 -3 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1407 1458 1535 1651 1775 2080 1934 1502 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.3 18.8 19.1 19.3 19.5 19.8 20.6 21.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.1 125.4 126.7 128.3 129.9 133.5 136.3 140.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 13 13 14 15 16 16 14 23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -6. -10. -15. -26. -34. -41. -47. -51. -55. -58. -62. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -8. -9. -10. -12. -13. -13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -10. -10. -9. -10. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -16. -24. -31. -46. -58. -70. -77. -82. -88. -92. -96.