* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * BUD EP032006 07/14/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 85 76 68 60 51 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 85 76 68 60 51 37 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 85 76 68 62 56 47 39 34 30 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 34 29 26 26 25 21 21 18 18 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 6 11 15 15 19 20 17 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 -1 -2 2 4 2 3 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 52 10 17 31 23 40 50 62 56 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.2 23.8 23.7 23.5 23.1 22.9 23.2 24.1 24.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 103 101 99 95 92 96 106 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.8 -52.2 -52.6 -52.6 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -53.2 -53.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 3 2 2 3 3 5 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 78 74 70 68 65 59 53 46 38 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 16 15 14 14 13 12 10 7 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 55 54 48 53 54 43 35 20 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 43 33 35 29 35 -3 -21 2 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1361 1442 1544 1670 1798 2068 2011 1675 1300 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 18.6 19.0 19.3 19.4 19.4 19.2 19.5 19.6 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 123.8 125.4 127.0 128.6 130.1 133.0 135.6 138.8 142.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 16 16 15 15 14 13 14 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 13 CX,CY: -11/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 105 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 602 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -6. -10. -15. -26. -34. -40. -45. -49. -53. -56. -60. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -8. -6. -5. -3. -3. -3. -2. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -3. -5. -8. -11. -13. -13. -14. -13. -12. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -3. -2. -1. -0. -0. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -9. -17. -25. -34. -48. -61. -72. -81. -88. -93. -97.-100.