* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP042006 07/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 70 69 67 64 59 48 39 30 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 70 69 67 64 59 48 39 30 22 17 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 70 70 67 63 59 49 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 24 20 21 20 16 16 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 11 10 8 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 5 4 2 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 205 201 195 179 174 127 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.8 25.4 24.9 24.4 24.0 23.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 121 117 112 107 103 94 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.2 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 4 4 4 4 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 72 70 68 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 11 11 10 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -36 -32 -12 -5 -3 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 28 33 29 15 -2 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 673 679 741 807 868 1005 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.4 19.8 19.9 20.1 20.4 20.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 115.3 116.1 117.2 118.3 119.3 121.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 8 CX,CY: -7/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 65 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 566 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -1. -3. -6. -12. -19. -23. -28. -31. -34. -36. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -10. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -1. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -4. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -11. -22. -31. -40. -48. -53. -59. -65. -71.