* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP042006 07/17/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 24 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 24 23 20 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 23 22 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 31 28 26 23 20 18 16 15 15 15 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 8 12 18 16 16 17 22 19 24 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 1 0 0 1 3 0 1 2 N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 156 133 100 112 112 107 87 97 91 99 N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.3 22.1 21.9 21.7 21.6 21.5 21.5 21.8 22.5 23.3 N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 85 83 81 79 78 76 76 79 86 95 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 -52.9 -52.8 -53.1 -53.4 -53.4 -53.4 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 3 3 3 3 3 3 4 4 5 6 N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 68 62 64 60 58 56 49 46 40 37 N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 15 13 12 11 10 9 6 6 4 4 LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -2 8 21 25 30 37 32 36 33 49 N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -12 -6 -7 -11 -10 -18 -28 -18 -20 -12 N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1076 1153 1242 1342 1452 1630 1788 1965 2133 1969 N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.3 21.2 21.2 20.8 20.4 19.9 19.5 N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 122.9 123.9 125.0 126.2 127.4 129.4 130.9 132.6 134.2 136.0 N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 10 8 8 8 7 10 N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):290/ 10 CX,CY: -8/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 580 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -4. -8. -10. -12. -14. -13. -13. -14. -18. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 1. -2. -6. -7. -8. -9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -9. -10. -11. -11. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -4. -7. -11. -12. -14. -14. -16. -15. -14. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -2. -5. -9. -18. -29. -39. -50. -54. -60. -62. -65.