* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP042006 07/20/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 26 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 26 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 17 15 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 13 15 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 2 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 60 76 91 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.9 23.1 23.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 91 93 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.9 -52.9 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 6 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 47 46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -3 11 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -35 -27 -36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1936 2038 2112 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 20.4 20.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.4 133.4 134.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 10 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 676 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -3. -3. -4. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 2. 0. -2. -3. -3. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -5. -6. -7. -7. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. -1. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -18. -21. -25. -28. -33.