* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * CARLOTTA EP042006 07/20/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 26 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 26 26 25 24 21 18 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 24 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 32 16 14 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 17 17 16 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 3 3 2 3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 59 84 85 89 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 23.3 23.6 23.8 23.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 95 98 99 99 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.0 -53.1 -53.2 -53.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 7 7 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 47 47 44 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 11 9 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -43 -27 -48 -46 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1959 2063 2133 2115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.0 19.6 19.5 19.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 132.3 133.2 133.9 134.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 8 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):260/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 680 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -1. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 0. -2. -5. -6. -7. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 1. 0. -1. -4. -7. -12. -17. -20. -23. -26. -30.