* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP062006 07/20/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 27 28 30 31 35 40 48 52 56 57 57 V (KT) LAND 25 26 27 28 30 31 35 40 48 52 56 57 57 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 20 18 16 16 15 DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G03R 34 28 27 28 28 27 32 32 41 48 57 55 65 SHEAR (KT) 14 18 20 19 17 17 7 8 9 13 20 18 20 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -5 -2 0 -2 -4 -4 3 5 7 0 9 SHEAR DIR 247 252 251 260 251 257 261 236 246 231 236 228 243 SST (C) 28.6 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.7 28.1 27.7 27.4 27.1 27.0 26.9 POT. INT. (KT) 148 149 149 150 152 153 153 146 142 138 134 132 132 200 MB T (C) -53.1 -53.5 -53.7 -53.3 -52.8 -53.6 -52.4 -53.0 -51.7 -52.6 -51.5 -52.0 -51.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 11 11 12 12 11 10 9 11 11 700-500 MB RH 77 75 76 73 74 76 79 78 78 77 76 74 73 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 15 16 16 18 20 25 29 33 34 36 850 MB ENV VOR 15 10 20 32 33 43 47 44 66 74 86 108 148 200 MB DIV 97 83 71 87 108 107 118 106 121 32 91 39 62 LAND (KM) 797 756 720 700 660 534 468 508 506 605 638 721 798 LAT (DEG N) 9.6 10.0 10.4 10.6 11.0 12.5 14.0 15.0 16.4 17.5 17.7 17.6 17.8 LONG(DEG W) 101.3 101.3 101.5 101.5 101.5 102.1 104.2 106.7 108.6 110.8 112.6 114.0 115.4 STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 3 3 6 10 14 12 12 10 7 6 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G03R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT): 53/ 5 CX,CY: 4/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 620 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 22. 28. 32. 34. 36. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -22. -22. -21. -21. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 4. 4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 5. 7. 10. 14. 21. 25. 31. 32. 32. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 4. 4. 4. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 10. 15. 23. 27. 31. 32. 32.