* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP052006 07/20/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 95 93 90 87 84 80 76 67 63 57 52 45 V (KT) LAND 95 95 93 90 87 84 80 76 67 63 57 52 45 V (KT) LGE mod 95 95 92 87 82 72 65 58 53 47 43 40 39 V (KT) G08R 37 33 37 37 42 43 53 58 56 53 51 52 48 SHEAR (KT) 5 10 12 9 8 9 11 13 14 7 5 7 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 -2 -1 2 2 0 1 6 2 0 0 1 2 SHEAR DIR 252 238 221 234 231 218 243 241 249 253 261 96 282 SST (C) 27.1 27.1 27.0 26.9 26.9 27.1 27.2 27.0 26.7 26.6 26.2 25.6 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 131 131 132 132 132 135 136 134 131 130 125 118 113 200 MB T (C) -52.4 -52.8 -53.2 -52.9 -52.2 -52.6 -51.8 -52.2 -51.1 -52.2 -51.5 -51.4 -51.2 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 8 8 7 700-500 MB RH 72 70 68 66 68 68 65 63 63 64 59 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 23 23 23 23 25 29 32 36 35 37 36 34 33 850 MB ENV VOR 52 53 54 51 53 46 46 47 66 78 87 93 104 200 MB DIV 43 74 90 87 106 90 81 57 71 46 63 28 27 LAND (KM) 1774 1797 1779 1740 1743 1785 1905 2005 2127 2235 2191 2049 1887 LAT (DEG N) 11.4 11.3 11.7 12.4 12.9 13.7 14.2 14.6 15.1 15.7 16.1 16.8 17.6 LONG(DEG W) 121.6 121.8 122.0 122.4 123.1 124.6 126.6 128.2 130.4 132.3 134.4 135.6 137.0 STM SPEED (KT) 2 2 6 8 7 9 9 10 10 10 8 8 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 625 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -16. -21. -25. -30. -34. -38. -41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 1. 3. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -4. -6. -9. -13. -16. -18. -20. -21. -19. -19. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -8. -8. -8. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 12. 18. 18. 19. 18. 16. 13. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -2. -5. -8. -11. -15. -19. -28. -32. -38. -43. -50.