* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP052006 07/20/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 97 97 97 95 89 83 76 68 62 59 51 43 V (KT) LAND 95 97 97 97 95 89 83 76 68 62 59 51 43 V (KT) LGE mod 95 97 97 93 90 82 74 66 59 53 48 44 41 V (KT) G10R 63 51 49 47 49 50 57 63 54 55 55 53 49 SHEAR (KT) 6 4 2 2 4 9 14 15 20 14 15 5 7 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 -1 5 3 0 -1 0 0 -6 -1 5 7 SHEAR DIR 350 334 242 306 243 265 227 258 227 242 257 218 294 SST (C) 27.2 27.2 27.1 27.0 27.0 27.4 27.5 27.4 27.1 27.1 26.6 25.8 25.1 POT. INT. (KT) 135 134 134 133 133 138 139 138 135 135 129 121 113 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.8 -53.0 -52.5 -51.9 -52.5 -51.5 -52.0 -51.2 -52.0 -51.4 -51.8 -51.4 TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 9 9 9 10 10 9 9 8 8 7 7 700-500 MB RH 72 70 70 67 68 68 64 64 64 60 62 59 56 GFS VTEX (KT) 27 27 27 29 29 30 32 34 35 35 37 35 33 850 MB ENV VOR 34 41 43 45 53 60 67 77 91 107 124 113 116 200 MB DIV 36 80 54 51 75 71 102 72 105 32 51 33 15 LAND (KM) 1718 1776 1796 1814 1833 1919 2011 2154 2222 2348 2181 2042 1867 LAT (DEG N) 11.3 11.2 11.5 11.8 12.1 12.5 13.1 13.4 14.1 14.7 15.3 16.2 17.5 LONG(DEG W) 120.7 121.4 122.0 122.7 123.4 125.1 126.9 128.9 130.6 132.8 134.7 135.8 137.2 STM SPEED (KT) 7 6 7 7 8 9 10 9 10 10 8 9 8 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):270/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 0 T-12 MAX WIND: 80 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 559 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -19. -23. -27. -31. -35. -39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -7. -11. -14. -17. -19. -20. -20. -20. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 4. 3. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 12. 12. 14. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 2. 2. 0. -6. -12. -19. -27. -33. -36. -44. -52.