* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP052006 07/22/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 130 127 122 116 109 96 83 70 60 58 54 45 37 V (KT) LAND 130 127 122 116 109 96 83 70 60 58 54 45 37 V (KT) LGE mod 130 126 118 111 104 92 83 73 65 59 56 51 46 V (KT) G00R 33 32 32 35 37 36 39 43 42 43 42 38 34 SHEAR (KT) 8 8 5 3 5 9 14 15 10 5 3 6 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -3 -2 -2 -1 -2 -2 -2 -3 0 8 3 0 SHEAR DIR 258 281 302 298 247 234 237 213 228 140 261 294 301 SST (C) 27.6 27.5 27.4 27.4 27.4 27.4 26.9 26.5 26.2 25.9 25.5 25.2 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 140 139 138 138 138 137 132 127 122 120 116 114 114 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.4 -52.9 -53.0 -52.7 -53.1 -52.6 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.0 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 9 9 9 8 8 9 8 8 8 8 700-500 MB RH 62 59 57 58 58 54 55 54 51 49 45 43 41 GFS VTEX (KT) 21 21 21 22 22 24 25 25 25 26 24 21 19 850 MB ENV VOR 35 40 42 45 59 78 89 98 91 95 91 77 64 200 MB DIV 25 31 13 -11 22 51 30 8 5 31 16 5 -24 LAND (KM) 2086 2147 2211 2285 2345 2354 2172 2005 1899 1873 1777 1683 1485 LAT (DEG N) 13.3 13.5 13.6 13.6 13.7 13.8 14.3 14.7 15.1 15.6 16.4 17.3 18.5 LONG(DEG W) 128.0 128.9 129.9 130.9 131.8 133.5 135.1 136.6 137.5 137.6 138.3 139.0 140.7 STM SPEED (KT) 9 9 10 9 9 8 8 6 3 4 5 7 12 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 549 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -3. -7. -11. -16. -26. -36. -46. -55. -63. -69. -75. -79. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 1. 4. 6. 7. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -8. -11. -14. -16. -16. -16. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE 4. 6. 6. 6. 3. 0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -5. -5. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 3. 6. 7. 6. 7. 5. 1. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -2. -5. -7. -8. -9. -7. -5. -2. 0. 3. 3. 2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -3. -8. -14. -21. -34. -47. -60. -70. -72. -76. -85. -93.