* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL982006 07/24/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 22 25 29 32 38 43 47 52 56 61 64 67 V (KT) LAND 20 22 25 29 32 30 28 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 18 18 19 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 15 19 25 28 29 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 27 26 16 14 21 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -3 -3 0 -1 3 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 108 119 115 95 81 104 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.1 29.1 29.3 29.3 29.2 7.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 107 154 158 157 156 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 99 145 146 143 144 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.3 -53.7 -54.3 -54.3 -53.9 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 11 14 15 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 80 76 73 70 67 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 5 7 9 7 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -12 -12 -19 -14 -1 -23 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 71 60 43 30 15 39 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 50 75 133 140 59 -32 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 20.6 21.8 23.1 24.2 25.3 27.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 96.3 96.5 96.5 96.3 96.7 97.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 13 12 11 13 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 0 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):259/ 10 CX,CY: -9/ -1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 667 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 4. 10. 16. 21. 26. 28. 30. 32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 6. 7. 6. 2. -1. -4. -6. -7. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -1. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 18. 23. 27. 32. 36. 41. 45. 47.