* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP062006 07/24/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 65 69 72 74 72 65 53 41 30 19 DIS V (KT) LAND 60 62 65 69 72 74 72 65 53 41 30 19 DIS V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 62 62 62 60 58 53 47 39 32 27 22 V (KT) G08R 42 38 47 41 44 38 39 38 36 29 24 20 20 SHEAR (KT) 12 9 9 5 2 6 7 10 9 7 10 4 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 1 0 -2 -1 1 2 -1 2 4 3 1 1 SHEAR DIR 208 186 169 167 255 337 315 295 309 302 274 285 314 SST (C) 28.0 27.5 27.0 26.5 26.1 25.7 25.0 23.9 22.7 21.7 21.2 20.9 21.0 POT. INT. (KT) 144 139 134 129 124 120 113 102 90 79 73 70 70 200 MB T (C) -51.6 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -51.9 -52.4 -51.9 -52.1 -51.7 -52.0 -51.7 -52.0 -52.2 TH_E DEV (C) 13 11 10 9 10 8 8 5 4 2 2 1 1 700-500 MB RH 80 79 76 75 74 71 69 69 63 59 54 54 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 20 22 24 25 25 26 27 26 24 20 18 15 14 850 MB ENV VOR 82 87 94 101 93 93 119 99 53 36 32 39 46 200 MB DIV 109 83 51 50 42 -7 -3 -5 -2 -12 -14 -9 10 LAND (KM) 370 411 367 387 424 562 602 700 744 874 1052 1179 1240 LAT (DEG N) 18.8 19.2 19.7 19.9 20.2 20.3 21.0 21.9 23.3 24.4 25.0 25.5 25.9 LONG(DEG W) 108.8 109.8 110.9 111.9 112.9 114.8 116.5 118.4 120.5 122.9 125.1 126.9 128.4 STM SPEED (KT) 10 11 10 10 9 9 9 11 12 12 9 8 7 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 514 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -5. -11. -16. -21. -27. -33. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -0. 0. 1. 2. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 6. 6. 7. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 1. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -9. -8. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 9. 6. 1. -2. -5. -7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 12. 14. 12. 5. -7. -19. -30. -41. -50.