* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP062006 07/24/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 60 62 64 67 68 68 64 56 47 38 30 22 19 V (KT) LAND 60 62 64 67 68 68 64 56 47 38 30 22 19 V (KT) LGE mod 60 62 62 62 61 59 56 52 48 43 38 33 DIS V (KT) G09R 39 29 28 25 22 22 22 17 17 16 13 12 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 7 5 3 8 12 10 13 12 12 12 13 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 -1 -1 -1 -2 2 -4 6 0 1 2 N/A SHEAR DIR 201 179 173 232 287 328 315 315 311 315 292 284 N/A SST (C) 27.8 27.1 26.4 26.0 26.0 26.0 25.8 25.3 24.7 23.8 23.2 23.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 144 137 129 124 123 122 120 116 109 100 95 97 N/A 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.5 -53.0 -52.9 -52.4 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 -53.1 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 9 8 8 8 9 8 8 7 6 6 N/A 700-500 MB RH 81 78 76 72 71 69 67 64 61 58 53 50 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 14 15 16 15 13 11 9 7 5 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 79 85 83 80 80 107 104 82 81 51 38 26 N/A 200 MB DIV 61 56 17 18 18 -3 -18 6 5 -6 -13 -17 N/A LAND (KM) 397 373 412 522 622 763 812 891 1001 1076 1222 1418 N/A LAT (DEG N) 19.0 19.6 19.8 19.6 19.3 18.8 19.0 19.4 19.8 20.6 20.9 20.4 N/A LONG(DEG W) 109.2 110.7 112.2 113.6 114.6 115.9 117.1 118.7 120.4 122.1 124.4 126.4 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 15 14 12 9 6 6 9 9 9 11 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):279/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 55 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 486 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -1. -4. -7. -11. -15. -18. -21. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. PERSISTENCE 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 4. 2. -1. -3. -6. -9. -8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 7. 8. 8. 4. -4. -13. -22. -30. -38. -41.