* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP052006 07/24/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 95 85 76 69 62 55 47 41 37 33 31 30 30 V (KT) LAND 95 85 76 69 62 55 47 41 37 33 31 30 30 V (KT) LGE mod 95 86 79 74 70 64 61 60 60 59 58 57 57 V (KT) G10R 48 36 33 33 31 32 30 32 30 28 27 30 30 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 9 9 11 5 8 10 6 11 10 15 15 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 1 0 0 0 0 2 0 0 -3 -3 0 -2 SHEAR DIR 261 261 256 226 224 220 158 150 150 117 108 88 51 SST (C) 25.6 25.7 26.0 26.1 26.1 25.9 25.6 25.2 25.0 25.2 25.4 25.9 26.3 POT. INT. (KT) 120 121 123 123 122 120 118 115 114 117 119 126 128 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.3 -52.5 -52.7 -52.7 -53.3 -53.5 -53.7 -53.6 -53.8 -53.8 -54.1 -54.3 TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 9 9 9 10 10 700-500 MB RH 45 43 42 41 39 38 34 32 29 25 27 28 30 GFS VTEX (KT) 26 24 23 22 21 20 17 16 15 13 13 13 12 850 MB ENV VOR 85 86 85 82 77 87 86 88 75 69 67 68 56 200 MB DIV -37 -6 8 1 -7 -16 -5 0 -21 -28 -8 7 19 LAND (KM) 1893 1777 1667 1599 1531 1426 1278 1103 867 556 220 41 111 LAT (DEG N) 15.6 15.7 15.6 15.5 15.7 16.1 16.9 17.7 18.6 19.2 19.7 20.2 20.9 LONG(DEG W) 137.4 138.5 139.6 140.3 140.9 141.8 143.0 144.5 146.6 149.5 152.7 156.3 159.8 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 9 6 5 6 7 10 12 16 14 19 15 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):286/ 14 CX,CY: -12/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 115 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 573 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -2. -4. -7. -10. -17. -24. -31. -37. -42. -45. -48. -50. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG -1. -2. -2. -2. -1. 1. 2. 4. 5. 5. 5. 4. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. -8. PERSISTENCE -5. -8. -9. -9. -7. -6. -4. -2. -2. -2. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -5. -6. -11. -13. -15. -17. -17. -17. -16. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 3. 3. 3. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS -1. -3. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -2. -1. 0. 1. 0. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -10. -19. -26. -33. -40. -48. -54. -58. -62. -64. -65. -65.