* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP052006 07/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 32 36 40 42 45 47 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 22 23 26 28 32 36 40 42 45 47 V (KT) LGE mod 20 17 16 16 16 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 25 23 23 24 25 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 6 7 8 7 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 0 -1 -1 0 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 166 141 131 125 128 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.2 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 126 127 127 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -54.0 -53.9 -54.0 -54.0 -54.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 10 10 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 34 34 34 35 36 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 10 9 8 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 62 61 55 50 44 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -25 -40 -41 -34 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1149 1075 946 821 672 374 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.2 16.3 16.3 16.5 16.8 17.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.5 145.2 146.5 147.7 149.1 152.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 7 10 12 13 14 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 552 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 23. 25. 26. 26. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -5. -6. -5. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 12. 16. 20. 22. 25. 27.