* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP052006 07/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 21 21 22 25 27 28 30 31 32 35 37 V (KT) LAND 20 20 21 21 22 25 27 28 30 31 32 35 37 V (KT) LGE mod 20 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 30 27 25 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 12 12 14 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 0 0 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 160 138 141 143 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 25.7 25.9 25.8 25.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 120 122 122 121 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 34 39 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 6 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 57 56 72 64 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -17 16 -15 -12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1236 1162 1028 894 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.3 17.0 17.4 17.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 143.3 144.1 145.3 146.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 10 12 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 547 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 4. 3. 2. 1. 1. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 6. 6. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. 1. 1. 2. 5. 7. 8. 10. 11. 12. 15. 17.