* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP062006 07/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 45 41 37 32 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 45 41 37 32 28 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 45 40 37 33 30 26 21 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 21 14 15 14 11 9 10 8 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 6 10 5 1 4 4 4 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 3 3 9 8 7 5 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 279 319 7 109 261 13 44 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 24.0 24.0 23.5 22.8 22.2 21.5 21.1 20.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 102 102 98 90 83 75 69 66 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.2 -52.5 -52.5 -52.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 4 3 2 2 2 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 63 61 59 56 53 49 45 42 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 11 9 8 8 6 5 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 11 10 8 8 14 23 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -9 -10 -8 2 -14 -9 -26 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 302 348 426 522 595 739 820 834 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 25.6 25.8 26.0 26.3 26.7 26.9 27.3 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 116.8 117.7 118.8 120.0 120.9 122.5 123.8 124.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 8 9 11 10 8 7 4 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):301/ 12 CX,CY: -9/ 6 T-12 MAX WIND: 60 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 571 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -2. -5. -11. -16. -23. -27. -29. -30. -33. -37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. -4. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. -1. 0. -0. -3. -6. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -3. -5. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -6. -6. -6. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. -5. -5. -4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -12. -14. -15. -16. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -9. -11. -11. -11. -11. -11. -10. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -4. -8. -13. -17. -28. -41. -55. -62. -67. -74. -78. -81.