* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP052006 07/27/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 20 19 19 18 16 16 17 21 25 25 28 30 V (KT) LAND 20 20 19 19 18 16 16 17 21 25 25 28 30 V (KT) LGE mod 20 17 16 16 15 15 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 38 28 28 30 27 26 23 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 2 5 6 5 3 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 5 3 7 10 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 147 107 134 152 175 338 45 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.2 26.2 26.3 26.3 26.4 26.5 26.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 125 125 127 127 128 129 129 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.3 -53.3 -53.4 -53.4 -53.8 -54.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 9 9 10 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 35 34 35 37 38 39 35 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 17 14 13 12 11 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 73 80 69 57 46 32 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 11 -31 -41 -37 -32 -7 -7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 1113 1020 912 807 702 513 301 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 16.1 16.2 16.2 16.2 16.1 16.3 16.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 144.9 145.8 146.9 148.0 149.2 151.3 153.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 9 10 11 11 11 11 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):275/ 6 CX,CY: -5/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 567 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 20. 23. 26. 27. 27. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 11. 11. 12. 12. 13. 13. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -3. -3. -4. -6. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. PERSISTENCE -2. -4. -5. -6. -6. -7. -6. -5. -5. -5. -4. -2. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -2. -3. -5. -9. -14. -17. -17. -17. -17. -16. -15. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -4. -3. 1. 5. 5. 8. 10.