* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * DANIEL EP052006 07/28/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 28 28 30 33 36 39 42 44 43 44 43 V (KT) LAND 25 27 28 28 30 33 36 39 42 44 43 44 43 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 31 30 26 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 4 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 8 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 106 59 40 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 26.1 26.0 26.1 26.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 124 125 127 128 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.7 -53.5 -53.8 -53.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 10 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 31 35 32 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 10 8 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 46 53 39 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -29 -20 1 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 657 547 373 250 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 17.1 17.6 17.7 17.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 149.1 150.0 151.8 153.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 13 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):283/ 11 CX,CY: -10/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 618 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 10. 13. 16. 19. 21. 22. 22. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 8. 9. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -6. -7. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. -3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -3. -4. -5. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -6. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 3. 3. 5. 8. 11. 14. 17. 19. 18. 19. 18.