* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP062006 07/28/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 25 24 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 25 25 24 23 21 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 24 23 22 19 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 23 17 13 9 11 10 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 12 7 6 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 2 3 2 0 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 255 286 311 241 276 284 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 22.5 21.8 21.6 21.5 21.4 20.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 87 81 79 76 73 69 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.0 -52.3 -52.4 -52.5 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 2 1 1 1 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 60 56 56 57 56 53 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 10 9 8 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 1 6 7 27 37 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 3 3 -13 -4 -6 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 425 532 689 834 843 890 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.4 27.5 27.0 26.6 26.8 27.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 119.3 120.5 122.0 123.4 123.8 124.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 11 12 14 8 4 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):309/ 8 CX,CY: -5/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 506 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -3. -5. -9. -12. -14. -17. -18. -19. -20. -24. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 7. 7. 6. 4. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 9. 10. 11. 12. 12. 12. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -3. -6. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -7. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 0. -1. -2. -4. -11. -18. -25. -33. -38. -43. -47. -51.