* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP062006 07/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 17 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G01R 13 14 13 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 13 9 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 3 1 0 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 334 335 12 15 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.2 19.8 19.5 19.3 18.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 61 59 59 59 61 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -53.0 -52.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 44 39 37 36 34 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 8 6 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 19 4 5 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 1 -12 15 -4 -8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 815 768 696 654 570 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.4 28.9 29.5 29.9 30.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.9 124.9 124.6 124.5 123.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 5 6 5 6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):316/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 607 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -10. -15. -18. -21. -25. -26. -27. -29. -34. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 6. 4. 1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -9. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -11. -13. -15. -16. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -5. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -4. -8. -12. -24. -34. -45. -56. -64. -71. -77. -83.