* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP062006 07/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G02R 12 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 5 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 19.9 19.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 59 59 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 43 40 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 33 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -10 -4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 831 875 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 28.9 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 126.0 126.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):316/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 691 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -7. -10. -16. -19. -22. -26. -26. -27. -29. -35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 8. 10. 11. 11. 10. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -10. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -10. -12. -14. -15. -17. -17. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -6. -10. -18. -25. -33. -42. -47. -53. -58. -64.