* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * GILMA EP082006 07/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 22 23 23 24 26 23 21 18 16 18 20 V (KT) LAND 20 21 22 23 23 24 26 23 21 18 16 18 20 V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 20 19 19 18 17 16 15 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 22 19 21 21 20 20 20 16 14 14 13 11 0 SHEAR (KT) 15 19 21 16 17 24 24 26 26 26 23 26 N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -1 0 -3 -1 -3 -7 -6 -5 -4 -6 1 -7 N/A SHEAR DIR 249 254 255 254 241 262 265 272 272 274 264 270 N/A SST (C) 28.5 28.6 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.8 28.7 28.6 28.4 28.3 28.3 28.5 N/A POT. INT. (KT) 149 150 152 151 152 151 150 149 146 146 143 150 N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.4 -54.4 -54.5 -54.4 -54.1 -54.4 -53.8 -54.1 -53.4 -53.7 -53.1 -53.5 N/A TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 9 9 10 10 12 12 12 12 13 12 N/A 700-500 MB RH 62 66 69 69 68 73 71 71 64 64 61 62 N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 9 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 7 6 4 4 LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -25 -21 -10 -8 -17 -11 -14 -16 -14 -2 3 1 N/A 200 MB DIV 33 41 26 39 55 40 50 23 12 23 18 39 N/A LAND (KM) 693 705 713 717 718 668 648 606 614 621 650 784 N/A LAT (DEG N) 9.8 9.9 10.1 10.3 10.6 11.7 12.4 13.2 13.8 14.0 14.1 13.5 N/A LONG(DEG W) 98.7 99.7 100.6 101.2 101.8 103.2 104.5 105.5 106.7 107.1 107.7 109.1 N/A STM SPEED (KT) 10 9 8 6 9 7 7 6 4 6 2 10 N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):282/ 7 CX,CY: -6/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 634 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 15. 24. 31. 36. 39. 43. 45. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -2. -4. -7. -9. -10. -11. -11. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -15. -19. -21. -23. -24. -24. -25. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -2. -2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 0. -2. -3. -6. -6. -6. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 6. 3. 1. -2. -4. -2. -0.