* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * EMILIA EP062006 07/30/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LAND 20 19 17 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) LGE mod 20 20 19 18 16 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 12 11 12 11 11 12 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 11 15 12 16 21 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 2 3 0 0 4 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 332 337 3 2 2 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 20.5 20.2 19.8 19.6 19.2 20.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 63 61 59 60 60 62 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.7 -52.7 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -53.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 1 1 1 1 1 2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 46 42 40 38 35 31 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 6 4 4 4 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 38 23 6 3 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV -8 -8 11 -2 -10 -2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 849 810 732 689 580 483 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 27.9 28.3 28.9 29.2 29.9 29.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 124.6 124.6 124.2 123.9 123.0 121.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 5 5 7 8 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):316/ 6 CX,CY: -3/ 4 T-12 MAX WIND: 20 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 624 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -1. -4. -6. -9. -15. -17. -20. -24. -24. -25. -27. -32. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 6. 3. -1. -5. -8. -9. -10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -7. -7. -8. -8. -9. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -9. -11. -13. -14. -16. -16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -3. -4. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 0. 0. ZONAL STORM MOTION -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -2. -2. -3. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. -5. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE -1. -3. -7. -11. -22. -32. -44. -57. -65. -73. -79. -85.