* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL912006 08/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 32 36 41 49 57 66 75 84 93 103 111 V (KT) LAND 25 27 32 36 41 49 57 66 75 84 93 103 111 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 37 44 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G07R 27 32 28 27 29 28 25 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 7 9 6 6 13 17 24 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 9 10 8 9 12 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 351 34 57 55 37 63 65 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.0 28.4 28.6 28.6 28.6 28.8 28.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 140 145 147 147 148 152 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 145 149 149 148 152 159 152 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.3 -53.5 -53.3 -52.8 -53.0 -53.5 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 14 14 15 15 15 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 47 49 51 52 51 53 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 13 14 13 12 11 9 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 26 18 11 12 5 -2 -9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 27 71 86 67 33 9 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 923 882 733 613 495 444 278 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.7 14.1 14.2 14.5 14.4 14.7 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 51.7 53.6 55.2 56.7 58.2 62.1 65.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 19 17 15 15 17 19 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G07R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 588 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 6. 13. 21. 26. 32. 35. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 6. 5. 3. 2. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. -5. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 19. 21. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 4. 5. 7. 9. 11. 12. 14. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. -1. -1. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 7. 11. 16. 24. 32. 41. 50. 59. 68. 78. 86.