* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL912006 08/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 40 51 62 71 80 89 98 107 114 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 40 51 62 71 80 89 98 107 114 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 27 29 32 38 46 56 68 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G08R 24 26 26 22 25 27 29 26 25 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 7 1 5 8 10 15 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 9 5 7 3 5 8 7 6 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 1 49 339 293 342 38 55 92 79 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.1 28.3 28.7 28.9 28.9 28.9 28.8 28.8 28.4 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 139 143 150 152 152 152 151 152 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 139 148 158 157 156 158 156 160 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.1 -53.7 -53.4 -52.7 -52.8 -53.2 -52.7 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 13 13 14 15 15 16 16 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 51 50 51 53 48 47 48 53 47 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 11 11 13 12 11 12 11 9 7 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 22 19 30 41 26 17 20 14 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 22 52 73 101 66 11 20 -4 1 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 746 712 709 619 496 272 333 330 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.5 11.7 12.1 12.2 12.3 13.0 13.7 13.9 14.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.5 51.7 53.7 55.3 56.7 59.8 63.1 67.0 70.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 12 16 18 15 14 16 17 19 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 537 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 1. 6. 13. 21. 27. 32. 36. 38. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 5. 7. 8. 7. 6. 5. 5. 6. 6. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -1. -1. -3. -4. -6. -5. -6. -5. -4. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 9. 10. 12. 13. 700-500 MB RH 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -4. -4. -4. -4. -5. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 15. 26. 37. 46. 55. 64. 73. 82. 89.