* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL912006 08/09/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 31 36 41 54 66 77 87 97 108 118 125 V (KT) LAND 25 27 31 36 41 54 66 77 87 97 108 118 125 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 28 30 33 41 53 66 79 DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G09R 30 28 27 24 26 28 27 26 24 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 9 1 2 1 6 6 11 18 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 8 8 10 9 4 7 9 6 -5 N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 21 53 121 65 41 77 55 91 82 N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.6 28.8 28.9 29.0 29.0 28.5 28.6 28.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 141 147 150 152 154 154 147 148 141 N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 144 152 157 159 163 162 154 154 144 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -54.2 -53.9 -53.7 -53.0 -53.2 -53.7 -53.2 -53.8 -53.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 15 13 12 15 14 15 17 15 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 50 50 48 46 47 49 54 51 N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 12 12 12 12 11 12 10 9 8 LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 15 21 20 20 18 19 18 16 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 37 56 65 72 52 34 46 7 22 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 721 626 615 601 504 171 177 234 201 N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 10.9 11.2 11.5 11.6 11.8 12.3 12.8 13.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 50.3 51.7 53.2 54.7 56.3 59.7 63.2 67.0 70.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 14 14 15 15 17 17 18 17 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G09R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):273/ 21 CX,CY: -20/ 1 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 583 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. -0. 1. 6. 13. 22. 27. 32. 36. 39. 41. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 10. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -3. -5. -7. -6. -6. -6. -5. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 13. 15. 17. 20. 21. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 7. 8. 10. 12. 13. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -1. -0. -2. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 6. 11. 16. 29. 41. 52. 62. 72. 83. 93. 100.