* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL912006 08/10/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 36 39 47 55 65 73 81 91 101 109 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 36 39 47 55 65 73 81 91 101 109 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 32 34 36 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G04R 23 23 26 24 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 11 10 16 19 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 6 8 14 11 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 95 77 93 107 95 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 157 157 157 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 168 165 168 166 165 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.4 -53.2 -53.1 -53.1 -53.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 16 15 18 17 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 54 55 53 52 52 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 8 6 7 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 23 26 16 7 13 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 30 34 1 16 4 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 311 322 417 292 298 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.6 13.6 14.3 15.3 15.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 61.2 63.3 65.2 67.2 69.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 20 20 21 21 20 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 673 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL -0. -1. -0. 1. 6. 14. 22. 27. 32. 36. 39. 40. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 2. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -9. -8. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 2. 4. 6. 8. 10. 11. 13. 14. 15. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 0. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 5. 6. 9. 11. 13. 15. 18. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. -3. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 9. 17. 25. 35. 43. 51. 61. 71. 79.