* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL912006 08/10/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 32 35 40 44 55 67 79 89 100 110 121 129 V (KT) LAND 30 32 35 40 44 55 67 79 89 100 110 121 129 V (KT) LGE mod 30 31 33 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G05R 20 21 24 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 10 9 8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 4 9 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 85 64 76 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 155 156 155 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 160 163 163 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.4 -53.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 17 16 15 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 53 54 55 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 6 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 14 14 14 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 32 46 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 259 276 311 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 13.0 13.2 13.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 60.2 61.7 63.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 15 17 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):278/ 19 CX,CY: -18/ 3 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 591 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. -0. 0. 2. 7. 14. 21. 26. 31. 35. 38. 39. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 7. 8. 8. 8. 8. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -9. -9. -7. -6. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 8. 11. 14. 16. 18. 20. 22. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 10. 12. 14. 16. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 5. 6. 7. 7. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 10. 14. 25. 37. 49. 59. 70. 80. 91. 99.