* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL942006 08/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 40 42 43 43 45 45 45 V (KT) LAND 30 31 33 34 35 37 40 42 43 43 45 45 45 V (KT) LGE mod 30 30 31 31 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G00R 10 15 16 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 17 16 18 18 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 2 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 284 263 253 260 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.2 28.1 28.1 28.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 137 135 137 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 130 128 133 137 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.6 -53.9 -54.1 -54.0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 9 9 10 10 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 76 74 69 68 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 6 7 5 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR 17 21 4 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 52 33 31 19 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 375 414 438 554 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 11.2 11.3 11.7 12.1 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 20.1 20.5 20.7 21.8 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 4 4 8 11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G00R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):287/ 17 CX,CY: -15/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 30 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 687 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 1. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 17. 21. 24. 27. 28. 29. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -3. -5. -7. -7. -8. -8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -7. -9. -11. -13. -15. -17. -18. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -4. -5. 700-500 MB RH -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 4. 5. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 4. 5. 7. 10. 12. 13. 13. 15. 15. 15.