* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HECTOR EP092006 08/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 32 37 45 54 61 68 70 70 67 63 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 32 37 45 54 61 68 70 70 67 63 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 28 29 31 33 35 37 38 39 V (KT) G01R 24 22 21 24 24 25 26 30 31 37 36 41 37 SHEAR (KT) 8 13 16 18 13 11 9 4 6 3 3 6 4 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 1 0 -1 0 0 -3 0 -1 0 3 -3 3 SHEAR DIR 202 213 209 209 220 235 252 266 254 242 56 85 101 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.2 29.0 28.9 28.5 27.8 26.9 25.9 25.4 24.7 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 153 155 156 156 154 151 142 133 123 118 110 200 MB T (C) -52.0 -52.3 -52.8 -52.6 -52.2 -53.2 -52.3 -52.9 -51.8 -52.8 -52.3 -52.5 -52.6 TH_E DEV (C) 12 9 9 9 9 9 10 9 9 8 6 5 5 700-500 MB RH 75 77 79 82 83 81 79 78 76 73 69 61 57 GFS VTEX (KT) 8 10 11 13 15 16 19 20 23 26 26 25 25 850 MB ENV VOR -27 -8 -5 -2 3 19 33 36 40 26 17 3 0 200 MB DIV 56 35 32 25 51 73 89 113 111 67 35 59 45 LAND (KM) 992 1172 1179 1086 1089 1209 1327 1332 1446 1511 1583 1700 1816 LAT (DEG N) 12.4 11.8 12.0 12.7 13.2 13.4 13.6 14.9 15.5 16.6 17.7 18.6 19.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.8 112.6 112.9 112.4 112.9 115.6 117.9 119.5 122.0 123.9 125.9 128.3 130.3 STM SPEED (KT) 19 10 5 6 9 13 11 13 10 11 12 12 10 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G01R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 560 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 24. 30. 34. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -3. -4. -7. -11. -14. -16. -17. -17. -15. -14. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -11. -10. -10. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 4. 4. 3. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 3. 6. 10. 15. 18. 22. 25. 26. 23. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 0. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 12. 20. 29. 36. 43. 45. 45. 42. 38.