* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HECTOR EP092006 08/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 26 29 33 39 48 60 72 76 72 64 56 47 V (KT) LAND 25 26 29 33 39 48 60 72 76 72 64 56 47 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 25 25 26 28 32 38 44 49 50 47 43 V (KT) G02R 29 30 33 38 37 31 37 50 48 43 43 36 32 SHEAR (KT) 16 14 11 9 1 5 6 3 9 4 0 8 8 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 1 2 4 4 6 3 2 2 0 2 6 2 1 SHEAR DIR 251 232 200 183 167 303 310 44 326 158 16 89 73 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.3 29.1 28.8 28.2 27.0 26.0 25.1 24.1 23.3 22.7 POT. INT. (KT) 153 152 156 159 157 154 148 135 124 115 104 95 87 200 MB T (C) -51.5 -52.1 -52.5 -52.1 -51.6 -52.3 -51.3 -52.0 -51.3 -52.2 -51.8 -52.3 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 10 10 10 9 9 7 6 6 4 3 3 700-500 MB RH 77 79 80 79 79 76 70 68 66 65 58 53 51 GFS VTEX (KT) 16 16 18 21 22 23 25 27 29 27 24 23 21 850 MB ENV VOR 0 15 16 18 27 49 53 43 50 26 11 0 -20 200 MB DIV 88 65 39 58 76 133 83 42 94 29 -2 10 8 LAND (KM) 1048 1105 1058 1002 1020 1053 1143 1220 1370 1404 1470 1603 1671 LAT (DEG N) 11.7 11.5 12.2 13.5 14.3 15.3 16.3 17.4 18.2 19.2 20.9 21.7 22.4 LONG(DEG W) 110.7 111.3 111.5 112.1 113.4 116.0 118.5 121.0 123.5 125.1 127.4 129.4 130.5 STM SPEED (KT) 6 5 11 14 14 13 13 13 10 12 11 9 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G02R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 772 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 2. 8. 15. 22. 27. 29. 29. 28. 25. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 1. 2. 3. 5. 7. 8. 9. 9. 10. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -2. -3. -4. -6. -8. -8. -8. -9. -9. -9. -10. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -2. -2. -4. -6. -8. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -2. -3. -4. 700-500 MB RH 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 4. 6. 9. 13. 17. 19. 16. 13. 10. 7. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 4. 3. 3. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 3. 4. 4. 5. 4. 4. 5. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 4. 8. 14. 23. 35. 47. 51. 47. 39. 31. 22.