* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HECTOR EP092006 08/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 29 33 36 45 55 63 68 66 60 56 49 V (KT) LAND 25 27 29 33 36 45 55 63 68 66 60 56 49 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 27 28 29 32 35 39 42 44 44 42 V (KT) G05R 24 23 20 21 23 26 29 33 35 34 29 32 31 SHEAR (KT) 9 11 11 10 11 12 5 2 1 3 6 10 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 0 1 1 1 -3 1 3 1 1 5 -3 1 SHEAR DIR 231 205 186 207 234 221 235 150 123 220 247 161 123 SST (C) 29.1 29.1 29.2 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.6 27.6 26.2 25.1 25.0 24.2 23.0 POT. INT. (KT) 156 156 158 155 154 154 152 142 127 115 113 105 93 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.4 -52.8 -52.8 -52.5 -53.1 -52.2 -52.5 -52.0 -52.5 -52.6 -52.9 -52.7 TH_E DEV (C) 11 9 10 10 10 10 10 8 6 5 5 5 4 700-500 MB RH 76 78 79 78 78 77 73 69 64 58 54 48 43 GFS VTEX (KT) 11 12 13 14 15 17 20 21 22 22 20 19 17 850 MB ENV VOR -10 -1 -3 -8 -9 9 22 22 27 24 14 -4 -4 200 MB DIV 62 55 23 29 47 85 70 60 50 -2 5 4 -2 LAND (KM) 975 1058 1071 1121 1159 1151 1199 1225 1310 1465 1636 1764 1923 LAT (DEG N) 12.3 12.2 13.0 13.4 13.3 14.0 15.2 16.7 18.2 19.1 19.4 20.1 21.2 LONG(DEG W) 110.4 111.5 112.5 113.6 114.3 115.6 118.0 120.3 122.8 125.8 128.2 130.2 132.7 STM SPEED (KT) 11 11 12 9 7 10 13 14 15 13 10 12 13 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G05R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 671 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 15. 23. 28. 30. 31. 31. 28. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 8. 9. 9. 9. 9. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -1. -1. -2. -4. -7. -10. -11. -11. -12. -12. -11. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -5. -7. -8. -9. -9. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. -0. -1. -2. -3. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 4. 7. 12. 14. 16. 16. 13. 11. 8. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 1. 0. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 2. 2. 3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 4. 8. 11. 20. 30. 38. 43. 41. 35. 31. 24.