* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * HECTOR EP092006 08/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 57 67 71 73 72 68 61 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 34 39 49 57 67 71 73 72 68 61 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 27 27 28 28 30 32 33 33 32 32 V (KT) G08R 28 29 30 32 33 33 33 40 45 50 49 48 45 SHEAR (KT) 4 11 14 19 14 6 10 5 9 9 4 5 6 SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 4 3 4 6 2 -1 0 4 7 13 1 2 SHEAR DIR 182 210 193 204 228 223 275 249 240 182 192 196 176 SST (C) 29.0 29.0 29.1 29.1 29.1 28.9 28.8 28.3 27.8 27.0 26.1 25.8 25.0 POT. INT. (KT) 159 156 156 156 155 155 152 147 142 135 125 122 113 200 MB T (C) -51.9 -52.3 -52.7 -52.5 -51.9 -52.6 -51.4 -52.3 -51.5 -52.0 -51.1 -51.8 -51.6 TH_E DEV (C) 13 10 10 9 9 9 9 9 9 8 8 7 6 700-500 MB RH 75 75 77 75 77 76 72 75 71 64 59 56 55 GFS VTEX (KT) 10 13 15 17 19 21 22 26 28 31 31 29 27 850 MB ENV VOR 4 11 13 14 19 34 49 52 50 41 27 17 11 200 MB DIV 60 57 46 42 61 93 93 51 98 66 58 31 9 LAND (KM) 971 1201 1171 1229 1243 1204 1355 1427 1516 1564 1683 1798 1873 LAT (DEG N) 12.0 11.1 11.9 12.3 12.6 13.8 14.0 14.6 15.0 16.2 17.1 17.8 18.9 LONG(DEG W) 109.9 112.2 112.7 113.8 114.6 116.2 118.8 120.6 122.4 124.2 126.6 128.8 130.6 STM SPEED (KT) 24 14 10 10 8 13 9 10 9 13 10 11 11 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G08R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):285/ 19 CX,CY: -17/ 5 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 510 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL -0. -0. 0. 2. 8. 16. 23. 30. 33. 35. 36. 35. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 6. 7. 8. 8. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -1. -2. -4. -6. -10. -13. -15. -16. -16. -15. -15. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -1. -1. -2. -4. -6. -7. -9. -10. -10. -10. -9. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 1. 2. 5. 8. 13. 16. 23. 26. 29. 30. 26. 21. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -0. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 1. 2. 3. 5. 6. 7. 7. 7. 6. 6. 6. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 9. 14. 24. 32. 42. 46. 48. 47. 43. 36.