* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL932006 08/15/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 51 62 71 79 85 90 94 V (KT) LAND 20 21 23 26 30 40 51 62 71 79 85 90 94 V (KT) LGE mod 20 19 19 20 22 26 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G10R 19 17 15 16 15 18 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 3 5 5 4 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 0 -2 -2 0 -1 -3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 164 240 292 275 256 237 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 29.4 29.4 29.3 29.2 29.1 28.9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 157 155 154 153 152 149 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 135 130 130 130 130 126 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -52.5 -52.4 -52.8 -53.0 -52.9 -53.5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 14 12 12 14 14 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 48 45 45 46 47 50 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 5 5 5 5 4 4 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -4 -25 -15 -10 -6 9 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 4 3 10 0 0 26 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 209 140 128 134 144 173 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 26.8 26.8 27.0 27.6 28.1 29.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 78.0 78.7 78.7 78.8 79.0 79.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 6 3 4 6 7 7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G10R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):241/ 18 CX,CY: -15/ -8 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 561 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 0. 1. 5. 11. 19. 24. 29. 32. 34. 36. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 3. 5. 7. 11. 13. 15. 16. 17. 17. 18. 18. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 3. 3. 2. 2. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. PERSISTENCE -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. -3. -1. -1. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 6. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -3. -3. -3. -3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 5. 5. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 1. 3. 6. 10. 20. 31. 42. 51. 59. 65. 70. 74.