* EAST PACIFIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * IOKE CP012006 08/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 50 56 60 65 72 76 77 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 33 37 42 50 56 60 65 72 76 77 V (KT) LGE mod 25 26 26 28 29 30 31 30 29 28 29 31 35 V (KT) G04R 25 23 23 23 22 21 30 31 33 38 48 45 46 SHEAR (KT) 5 5 2 2 7 13 12 9 9 8 2 4 5 SHEAR ADJ (KT) -2 -4 -4 -2 0 0 2 6 1 -2 0 4 2 SHEAR DIR 325 329 1 284 233 237 276 276 286 314 25 58 88 SST (C) 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.4 28.4 28.3 28.2 28.1 27.9 27.8 27.7 27.7 27.7 POT. INT. (KT) 151 150 148 149 146 149 145 144 142 142 141 139 139 200 MB T (C) -52.6 -52.5 -52.9 -53.0 -52.8 -52.7 -52.3 -52.7 -52.6 -53.0 -52.6 -52.7 -52.3 TH_E DEV (C) 10 10 10 11 11 11 12 13 13 13 13 13 12 700-500 MB RH 64 61 61 62 63 65 58 57 57 57 53 52 52 GFS VTEX (KT) 7 8 9 10 11 12 16 19 20 23 25 25 26 850 MB ENV VOR 40 39 40 40 35 28 59 73 78 60 52 33 15 200 MB DIV 48 57 52 43 45 73 94 114 87 89 77 58 36 LAND (KM) 1019 1025 1023 1049 1060 995 968 1064 1110 1146 1123 1109 1048 LAT (DEG N) 10.3 9.8 9.7 9.5 9.5 10.2 11.4 11.4 12.0 12.7 13.9 14.9 16.0 LONG(DEG W) 152.3 154.0 155.2 156.5 157.3 157.8 160.2 161.8 163.2 164.6 166.2 167.2 167.5 STM SPEED (KT) 17 15 12 10 5 13 8 7 7 9 9 6 6 HEAT CONTENT 35 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G04R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):280/ 9 CX,CY: -8/ 2 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 453 (MEAN=581) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. SST POTENTIAL 0. 0. 1. 3. 8. 15. 21. 27. 31. 34. 36. 37. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 6. 7. 7. 8. 9. 10. 10. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR -0. -0. -1. -3. -6. -9. -13. -15. -16. -15. -13. -11. PERSISTENCE -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. 200/250 MB TEMP. -0. -0. -1. -2. -3. -5. -6. -7. -8. -8. -8. -7. THETA_E EXCESS 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. 7. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY 0. 1. 2. 3. 6. 11. 16. 19. 22. 26. 25. 23. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY 0. 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 3. 3. 200 MB DIVERGENCE 0. 0. 1. 1. 2. 2. 3. 2. 2. 1. -0. -1. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. 0. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. 0. STEERING LEVEL PRES 0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. -2. -2. -3. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 1. GOES PREDICTORS 1. 1. 2. 2. 1. -0. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -4. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 8. 12. 17. 25. 31. 35. 40. 47. 51. 52.