* ATLANTIC SHIPS INTENSITY FORECAST * * GOES DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * OHC DATA MISSING, PROXY USED * * UNKNOWN AL932006 08/18/06 00 UTC * TIME (HR) 0 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 V (KT) NO LAND 25 27 30 32 35 36 37 36 35 34 35 37 38 V (KT) LAND 25 27 30 32 35 29 27 27 27 27 27 27 27 V (KT) LGE mod 25 25 26 26 27 DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS DIS V (KT) G06R 20 12 12 10 13 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 SHEAR (KT) 25 28 30 27 25 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR ADJ (KT) 5 5 0 1 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SHEAR DIR 170 188 196 211 211 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A SST (C) 28.7 28.8 28.9 28.6 26.3 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A POT. INT. (KT) 143 145 149 144 115 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A ADJ. POT. INT. 117 119 125 122 97 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB T (C) -53.9 -54.4 -54.5 -54.5 -54.6 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A TH_E DEV (C) 12 8 7 11 12 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 700-500 MB RH 50 49 50 52 48 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A GFS VTEX (KT) 6 5 4 2 3 LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST LOST 850 MB ENV VOR -33 -30 -16 -6 -22 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A 200 MB DIV 7 -19 -15 -5 -11 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAND (KM) 192 173 138 57 0 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LAT (DEG N) 30.8 30.7 30.3 29.7 29.7 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A LONG(DEG W) 79.3 79.6 79.8 80.6 81.2 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A STM SPEED (KT) 3 3 7 7 5 N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A N/A HEAT CONTENT 45 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 9999 FORECAST TRACK FROM G06R INITIAL HEADING/SPEED (DEG/KT):207/ 6 CX,CY: -2/ -4 T-12 MAX WIND: 25 PRESSURE OF STEERING LEVEL (MB): 712 (MEAN=624) GOES IR BRIGHTNESS TEMP. STD DEV. 50-200 KM RAD: 14.5 (MEAN=14.5) % GOES IR PIXELS WITH T < -20 C 50-200 KM RAD: 65.0 (MEAN=65.0) INDIVIDUAL CONTRIBUTIONS TO INTENSITY CHANGE 6 12 18 24 36 48 60 72 84 96 108 120 ---------------------------------------------------------- SAMPLE MEAN CHANGE 1. 2. 3. 4. 6. 8. 9. 11. 11. 12. 13. 13. SST POTENTIAL 0. 1. 1. 1. 3. 6. 11. 15. 19. 20. 21. 23. VERTICAL SHEAR MAG 2. 4. 6. 8. 8. 6. 0. -4. -8. -10. -11. -14. VERTICAL SHEAR ADJ -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -2. -1. -1. -1. VERTICAL SHEAR DIR 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 4. 5. 5. PERSISTENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -1. -0. -0. 0. 200/250 MB TEMP. 0. 0. 1. 1. 1. 2. 3. 3. 4. 5. 6. 7. THETA_E EXCESS -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. 700-500 MB RH 0. 0. -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GFS VORTEX TENDENCY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -3. -3. -4. -4. -4. -4. 850 MB ENV VORTICITY -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -5. 200 MB DIVERGENCE -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -3. -4. -4. -5. -5. -4. -4. ZONAL STORM MOTION 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -2. STEERING LEVEL PRES -0. -0. -0. -0. -1. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. -1. DAYS FROM CLIM. PEAK -0. 0. 0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. GOES PREDICTORS 0. 1. 1. 1. 1. 0. -1. -1. -2. -2. -1. -1. OCEAN HEAT CONTENT -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. -0. 0. 0. 0. 0. -0. -0. ---------------------------------------------------------- TOTAL CHANGE 2. 5. 7. 10. 11. 12. 11. 10. 9. 10. 12. 13.